Thursday, 21 July 2011

The latest Roy Morgan poll shows a closer race. National drops 5 points, Labour is up 3 and Greens are up 2.
The results are:
·         National 49.0% (-5.0%)
·         Labour 33.5% (+3.0%)
·         Green 7.5% (+2.0%)
·         ACT 3.0% (+0.5%)
·         Maori 2.5% (-0.5%)
·         United Future 0.5% (nc)
·         NZ First 3.0% (-0.5%)
In a 122-seat parliament, you need 62 seats to govern. So National with ACT and United Future would be only four seats above that level. If over the next 19 weeks they lost more than four seats, then the Maori Party would hold the balance of power. With the Mana Party possibly winning up to four Maori seats it is possible, even probable, that a victory for a Labour Greens Mana combination could stand a good chance of forming a government.
John Key to pass laws he would need both Don Brash and the Maori Party to agree it is a good law. This may be the direct reason why the Nats have done a deal with the Act Party and Peter Dunne [United Future] is keen to a a like deal. The poll was taken from June 27 to July 10.

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