Saturday, 29 June 2013

By-election result shocks National Party

The Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election is over, the votes in and counted and a winner declared. Labour won the seat with a huge majority loss, Mana second with a huge increase in votes, The Maori Party came in a disappointing third and the Greens came fourth which was a really good result.

Because of Parekura Horomia’s personal popularity in the Ikaroa-Rawhiti electorate, Labour had such a huge majority that it was thought impossible to overcome it in yesterday’s by-election.

Most media predicted that labour would win, but were surprised that Mana produced such a stunning result especially in getting young people to the polling booth. The fact was that the Mana and Maori Party combined would have seen Labour defeated; if the Green vote was included the defeat of Labour would have been even more devastating.

The Maori Party demise was made even deeper when the Prime Minister couldn’t even remember the Maori Party candidate [Na Raihania] and considering that the Maori Party is a key National Party collaborator which the By-election proved damaging because Maori don’t wish to be a part of National.

So while National failed yet again to enter a candidate in a Maori seat, the failure of the Maori Party candidate is yet another nail in the coffin of the Maori Party at next years general election.

Its also a possible key in the defeat of National in 2014, National has and is quickly running out of partners, ACT is in a hole so deep, with its leader awaiting a court judgement that could see him jailed if found guilty, [which the Police Report says he is]. Peter Dunne is completely out of the picture as he battles to convince the country that he didn’t leak key GCSB data to the media.

A Labour-Green-Mana government is looking more and more likely 2014 result. Of course if Winston’s New Zealand First gets past the 5% threshold then it becomes a possible King-Maker. If Mana and labour share the Maori seats then the Mana Movement may replace Winston as the key to the final result. This from the Daily Blog site:

Let us not underestimate the political shock wave Labour’s weak win will create.
The youngest Political Party in Parliament has taken the Labour Party machine on and has decimated their majority.
In 2011, Labour got 60% of the vote, Maori Party 23% and MANA had 14%.
Labour limp home with 40% while MANA jump to 24%.
For an electorate that was supposed to be a cake walk, MANA have robbed Labour of any momentum in the Maori electorates for 2014.
This was always going to be a fight for second place, and the Maori Party being beaten into 3rd position is a major movement in Maori politics.
This poor result can not help Shearer’s leadership chances, Labour’s attempt to parachute in a candidate, his decision to say he wanted to ‘terrorize’ his opponents and his SkyCity corporate box hopping have all contributed to a leadership that has enthused no one.

So all in all a very pleasing result especially from both Mana and the Green party point of view…we can really say that the 2014 election has really started on a high note: Maori are looking for one solid party to represent them and the Maori Party is even now looking at how they can link with Mana to avoid a complete collapse in 2014. The grass root membership of Mana; via the by-election have, and continues to, develop and test its operational strategy for the coming year.

Of course I’m a Mana supporter so I would say that…but its so much easier to say it, because its simply the truth.

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